Status: ongoing
The severity of the wildfire season is increasing every year due to global climate change, and wildland
fire science in Canada is struggling to keep up with this growing complexity. We are already seeing the
impact of this in the north, with longer fire seasons and fires that are becoming more expensive to
manage. Thus, deciding whether to implement suppression efforts is an all too important task for Yukon
Wildland Fire Management branch (WFM).
Project overview
The severity of the wildfire season is increasing every year due to global climate change, and wildland fire science in Canada is struggling to keep up with this growing complexity. We are already seeing the impact of this in the north, with longer fire seasons and fires that are becoming more expensive to manage. Thus, deciding whether to implement suppression efforts is an all too important task for Yukon Wildland Fire Management branch (WFM).
The goal of this ongoing project is to develop and implement an automated process that provides a course-scale risk assessment of wildland fire occurring in the Yukon. This model takes into account the fuel environment, values at risk (VARs), and critical Fuel Management Zones (FMZ) with data provided by WFM. The ignition point of a fire (in lat/long coordinates) is entered into the model, and a local 20km risk analysis is performed. The fire is then assigned a relative risk rating (low, moderate, high, very high, extreme) to be incorporated into WFM’s decision making process.
Currently, we are working on model validation using historical fire data along with WFM duty officer consultation. A small team at WFM is in the process of building our risk assessment tool into their system so that it can be implemented for the 2022 fire season, and as such, we will be collaborating on these next phases throughout the spring and summer. This grant would fund wages for the project’s two returning summer students, so that we can work with WFM on model implementation and continue to build partnerships for further research.
Explain the fit with the fund (required for all amounts). Use the space below to explain how your project will help meet the objectives of SAG. This helps the committee see the benefits of your research for the university and community.
This project will continue to involve two YukonU students in the world of scholarly activity. There is a direct connection with topics in YukonU science courses such as CPSC 128 (to be offered next winter), MATH100/101, PHYS101/102, and RENR340, and thus there are opportunities to bring this research into the classroom through applied examples of math modelling, programming, and wildland fire science. Putting the course learning outcomes into context in this way gives the students a clearer picture of how the concepts they learn in class can be applied to real-world problems. Additionally, this project is helping to bridge the current gap in the lack of computer science course offerings at the university.
The students are getting hands-on programming experience by helping to develop, validate, and implement this wildfire risk assessment model created by us specifically for Yukon Wildland Fire Management branch (WFM). Tasks that the students are working on include but are not limited to: learning both MATLAB and Python programming languages, creating a model from scratch, writing a complex code to run and refine the model, utilizing data to calibrate and validate the model, developing expertise in wildland fire science through certified training courses, and sharing research results at conferences.
The first phase of this project (2020 May-Sept) resulted in a detailed understanding of wildland fire modelling and the field of fire science, accomplished through literature review, the completion of various CIFFC (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre) training courses, as well as many meetings with local wildland fire experts. This is also where our partnership with Yukon WFM began, which led to further Yukon-specific training courses and certifications, access to various data sets and expertise, and we were then able to begin developing our model using MATLAB and Python.
Throughout the second phase (2021 Feb-Sept), we presented our research at virtual conferences (International Association of Wildland Fire, May 20211) and seminars/interagency meetings, we gave press interviews for radio, magazine, and social media (CBC Yukon Morning radio show2, CarletonU newspaper3, Yukon WFM Year-in-Review magazine4, etc), and we developed new partnerships with fire scientists at the University of Alaska and UAlberta to explore further research collaborations. We continued to work closely with WFM to further refine the model and work towards implementing it in their fire decision-support-systems, and they generously provided us with additional funding through a transfer-payment-agreement (unfortunately, this funding was subsequently absorbed by YukonU before our project was able to use it — issue is still unresolved).
Our partners at WFM continue to offer in-kind contributions in the form of ongoing education and training, as well as access to necessary data and expertise, so that the research project may continue and grow. The implementation of our model will strengthen this partnership with WFM, and could lead to further collaboration with communities in the North as well as other partners in research and industry. Furthermore, the project is an important step in building capacity for wildland fire science in Canada, and in particular, will help the Yukon prepare for a future of larger, more severe forest fire events. Looking ahead to the next few years, a long-term goal of this project is to create a Yukon-centered wildland fire science research program, with partnerships at other institutions and communities.